Parker's Pythagorean Playbook

Back to Reality The one game which set most models apart from each other was the Saturday night clash between the Bulldogs and Cats. Unfortunately for us we had the Doggies as 58% favourites, meaning we finished one below most on tips and cost us a few bits to go along with it. We can handle this after the last two weeks of sucessful tipping and bit hoarding as we look to consolidate our place on the Squiggle leaderboard. Bits We gained another 2.61 bits across the seven round 11 matches with handy win from Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne helping boost that tally. Most if not all models and people would have picked that result with a lot of confidence so this doesn't do much for our ranking. We move up to 13.19 bits on the year, our highest mark yet as we cross the half way point of the H&A season. On Squiggle this puts us 16th, still just below midfield after a little slide this week. A couple close matchups in round 13 could be a big make or break week for the models...

Round 12 Tips Melbourne (71%, 21pts) v Carlton Port Adelaide (81%, 30pts) v Hawthorn West Coast v Collingwood (92%, 65pts) Western Bulldogs (58%, 6pts) v Geelong Gold Coast v Adelaide (54%, 6pts) GWS v Richmond (60%, 13pts) Essendon (78%, 33pts) v North Melbourne Head to Head Bets Season performance so far: 10.58 bits, 26.82 MAE, 64 tips (65%), -1.93 units, -6.8% ROI Only Richmond to beat GWS this week at $1.95 for 1 unit. GWS have little to no home field advantage and besides beating an undermanned Geelong last week have done very little to prove being a favourite v Richmond, who admittedly have also done nothing this season (other than also beating Geelong).

Will the Run Continue? Last week I asked if the model could sustain its winning ways and week 11 showed that it definitely could, but just not in the way we expected. Most tipsters and modellers did not achieve more than 4 tips this round, the PPP was no exception. Only hitting the standard four tips is nothing to be proud of, however when compared to our fellow modellers, we came out way ahead. Bits In total we lost 1.87 bits on round 11. Not great. However, when compared with the other Squiggle models, this is actually second best of the entire bunch. Only PlusSixOne came out ahead of this mark, losing 1.36 bits.  Our total for the year is now 10.58 bits, up to 15th on Squiggle from 22nd and 23rd the two weeks previous. This is a massive jump and it is all thanks to some conservative tips and some timely upsets. MAE Our MAE was not great by standard terms but once again when compared to Squiggle it was not too bad at all. We had a MAE of 22.99 this round, our best being a one poi...

Model Success, Short Lived or Sustained? After back to back successful weeks for the PPP model we are moving up the Squiggle leaderboards in bits, MAE, tips and profit on our bets. It felt like every game in round 10 went the way of the model for both long term and short term outcomes. How long this will continue is unknown but we will enjoy the pleasure when it is given to us. Bits We gained 2.17 bits in round 10 to go with the 1.79 from round 9 to move to 12.45 on the year. This has moved us up on Squiggle into the top 20 with a 20th place spot. We still sit 5 bits off the top spot which looks a bit of a long shot but continuing to move in the right direction is nothing but promising. MAE A couple very good MAE results have helped to lower the edge over the competition in the MAE fight too. We sit on 27.21 MAE for the season, sitting 20th as well in this ranking on Squiggle. Again this is a rise up from 23rd the round before and we look to continue making strides in this ranking too ...

Round 8 Tips Richmond v Geelong (72%, 25pts) West Coast v Gold Coast (73%, 29pts) Sydney (68%, 9pts) v Fremantle North Melbourne v Port Adelaide (79%, 21pts) Hawthorn v Melbourne (80%, 38pts) Brisbane (74%, 20pts) v Essendon Carlton v Western Bulldogs (56%, 9pts) Adelaide v St Kilda (55%, 10pts) Collingwood (85%, 37pts) v GWS Not the greatest round of football coming up outside of two relatively close games near the end of the round. We should be expecting 7 at a minimum here. Head to Head Bets Season performance so far: 8.5 bits, 26.25 MAE, 48 tips (67%), -1.48 units, -6.6% ROI Only one head to head bet this round, 2 units on St Kilda to beat Adelaide at $2.30. This is a real tester of St Kilda's real standing at the moment and could equally expose any shortcomings Adelaide may have. Expect a well coached St Kilda side to look to defend the skinny Adelaide Oval and shut down the Crows in front of their home crowd. Futures A juicy 7 bets this week to get us going into the second th...

How Did the Model Perform? A perfect round! Nothing more to be said, nine from nine tips. Most other models were similar but you can only tip the games given to you. Bits All the games correct means of course we gain bits. 4.15 gained in total to bring our season haul to 8.50.  We remain in the high twenties on Squiggle in 23rd. As the model gets more confidents with its predictions we should see some bigger swings in the leaderboard for us and others moving forward. MAE Another good MAE round with a 16.2 for the nine games. On the season we are now 26.25 MAE which again is good for 23rd on Squiggle. Our updates to MAE have made an improvement and we are seeing closer results to what we predict, however other models are too so no ground is there to be made. Of course getting all the tips correct is helping our MAE and we look to keep this going for the next few rounds. Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition We got the perfect round tipping wise with nine from nine as mentioned so the...