Moving On Up - Post Round 10 Model Analysis

Model Success, Short Lived or Sustained?


After back to back successful weeks for the PPP model we are moving up the Squiggle leaderboards in bits, MAE, tips and profit on our bets.

It felt like every game in round 10 went the way of the model for both long term and short term outcomes. How long this will continue is unknown but we will enjoy the pleasure when it is given to us.

Bits

We gained 2.17 bits in round 10 to go with the 1.79 from round 9 to move to 12.45 on the year. This has moved us up on Squiggle into the top 20 with a 20th place spot. We still sit 5 bits off the top spot which looks a bit of a long shot but continuing to move in the right direction is nothing but promising.

MAE

A couple very good MAE results have helped to lower the edge over the competition in the MAE fight too. We sit on 27.21 MAE for the season, sitting 20th as well in this ranking on Squiggle. Again this is a rise up from 23rd the round before and we look to continue making strides in this ranking too after a few tweaks to the margin model the last couple weeks.

Tipping and FMIplay

We move to 60 tips correct for the season (still last on Squiggle boo) but have not lost or gained ground there to any other models.

FMIplay is a different story with a 3-1 victory in round 10 moving us to 5-2-3 on the year, good for third place in Div 7, two points and margin off the top spot.

We play TheAFLBluster in round 11, hoping to move back to the top of Div 7.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Model Performance - Round 3

How Did the Model Perform? Round three threw up quite a few unexpected results, with somewhere between 4 and 5 underdogs getting the victory, depending on which source you use. For the PPP model  it was the best round so far to date in terms of tips and MAE with a -0.11 bit round being second only to round 1's -0.07 bits.  It is too easy to say this year has been unpredictable and not easy to model, the evidence for this however is in the Squiggle  model competition, with only four models in the net positive on bits. Having three straight rounds of negative bits does notr bode well for your model but so far in 2023 we can all be given a pass while the ratings and teams find their running order and settle down going into the first turn and back straight. If the betting markets are your preferred yardstick then we can safely say we have the bookies covered on MAE and bits, only being one behind on tips. For round three alone, the model tipped 5/9, lost 0.11 bits and had a M...
Read more

Model Performance - Round 1

How Did the Model Perform? Throughout 2023 I will be comparing my model to those in the Squiggle model competition with hopes of competing in it next year.  The Squiggle competition is a very well respected group of modellers who all predict the outcome of every match in the AFL season and then analyse their performance using various methods. In this post  I explained how these were but for those in need of a refresher we have bits (confidence based picks), MAE (the average of how many points you were wrong by) and just general tips (how many games did you pick the winner). On Squiggle the top models by bits are The Footycast  who leads the way with 0.79, Elo Predicts  who is second on 0.59 and AFLalytics  a close third on 0.58. My model finished round one in a would be 17th place with -0.07 bits. Not to worry, 23 rounds of AFL football to go. Looking at MAE now and we have  The Footycast   again in first with 27.13, The Cruncher in second with ...
Read more

AFL 2023 Season Preview

Image
2023 Initial Ratings and Model Explaination The 2023 footy season is upon us and it's time for wannabe modellers to break out their coding skills and put their brain and football knowledge to the test. I have refined and improved my previous models for sports like rugby, baseball and tennis to come up with what I believe to be an accurate and realistic model for the AFL season. My model works mainly from elo as its base rating system but includes variables like a fluid home ground advantage multiplier, expected score (or xScore) and previous head to head results to skew the probabilities one way or the other. The Elo Rating System Elo works on a couple main principles. Firstly is that it is a zero sum rating system, which means whatever points you add to one team you must take the same number of points away from the other team.  Secondly there is no "perfect" rating for each team as it is fluid and changes after every game.  For this reason two teams may play 10 matches a...
Read more