New Highs - Round 11 Model Analysis

Will the Run Continue?


Last week I asked if the model could sustain its winning ways and week 11 showed that it definitely could, but just not in the way we expected. Most tipsters and modellers did not achieve more than 4 tips this round, the PPP was no exception. Only hitting the standard four tips is nothing to be proud of, however when compared to our fellow modellers, we came out way ahead.

Bits

In total we lost 1.87 bits on round 11. Not great. However, when compared with the other Squiggle models, this is actually second best of the entire bunch. Only PlusSixOne came out ahead of this mark, losing 1.36 bits. 

Our total for the year is now 10.58 bits, up to 15th on Squiggle from 22nd and 23rd the two weeks previous. This is a massive jump and it is all thanks to some conservative tips and some timely upsets.

MAE

Our MAE was not great by standard terms but once again when compared to Squiggle it was not too bad at all. We had a MAE of 22.99 this round, our best being a one point miss on Port Adelaide's 11 point win where we tipped 10 points and our worst being 38 points off with Hawthorn's win over the fancied Saints.

This was good for 6th on the round per Squiggle standings and has moved us up again from 22nd and 23rd to 18th with a 26.82 on the year.

Tipping and FMIplay

We move to 64 tips correct on the year, still in the cellar on Squiggle.

FMIplay yields another win in a tightly fought affair with TheAFLBluster and myself only tipping one correct result of the five games but it was Port Adelaide's win which, as mentioned earlier, got me one point away and allowed me a bonus point to take the victory 2-0.

This moves us back to second on the Div 7 ladder with a rematch against 5th place ZaphBot on the horizon.

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