A Little Setback - Round 12 Model Analysis

Back to Reality

The one game which set most models apart from each other was the Saturday night clash between the Bulldogs and Cats. Unfortunately for us we had the Doggies as 58% favourites, meaning we finished one below most on tips and cost us a few bits to go along with it.

We can handle this after the last two weeks of sucessful tipping and bit hoarding as we look to consolidate our place on the Squiggle leaderboard.

Bits

We gained another 2.61 bits across the seven round 11 matches with handy win from Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne helping boost that tally. Most if not all models and people would have picked that result with a lot of confidence so this doesn't do much for our ranking.

We move up to 13.19 bits on the year, our highest mark yet as we cross the half way point of the H&A season. On Squiggle this puts us 16th, still just below midfield after a little slide this week. A couple close matchups in round 13 could be a big make or break week for the models.

MAE

A pretty successful week on MAE with a couple close picks, Melbourne winning by 17 compared to a tipped 21 and Collingwood winning by 63 compared to a tipped 65 being the highlights. We averaged 15.10 this week and moves us to 26.06 on the year. Another reduction from last week.

We sit 18th on Squiggle with this ranking, again moving up slightly from the previous few weeks on our upward charge. It is a lot closer above us now too so a couple good results this week will help our movement into the middle of the pack.

Tipping and FMIplay

The standard five tips this week moves us to a nice 69 correct on the year, still last on Squiggle.

We also copped a devistating FMIplay loss this round too, finishing 3-4 down to ZaphBot after Essendon's last gasp victory knocked us out of a drawing position into a losing one. This all came after our 2 point miss on the Collingwood game gave us a 3-2 lead with two to play but a win for Geelong and the Essendon squeaky win meant we blew the lead and with it our spot in second is under threat.

We do remain 2nd in Division 7 on 32 points just behind Sprenstrama on scoring difference (14 to 8) but the chasing pack is now only 2, 4 and 6 away respectively.

Next week we play Manikato888, a previous victim of the PPP model.

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