Model Performance - Round 8

How Did the Model Perform?

A perfect round! Nothing more to be said, nine from nine tips. Most other models were similar but you can only tip the games given to you.

Bits

All the games correct means of course we gain bits. 4.15 gained in total to bring our season haul to 8.50. We remain in the high twenties on Squiggle in 23rd. As the model gets more confidents with its predictions we should see some bigger swings in the leaderboard for us and others moving forward.

MAE

Another good MAE round with a 16.2 for the nine games. On the season we are now 26.25 MAE which again is good for 23rd on Squiggle.

Our updates to MAE have made an improvement and we are seeing closer results to what we predict, however other models are too so no ground is there to be made. Of course getting all the tips correct is helping our MAE and we look to keep this going for the next few rounds.

Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition

We got the perfect round tipping wise with nine from nine as mentioned so there is not much to say there.

FMIplay however... oof.

We went down in game one thanks to margin against the winless vote1steve. We fought back with a game two win to level to scores at 1-1 and then with 20 seconds left in the GWS v Bulldogs game, Jessie Hogan slotted one for the home team to move the margin to 15 points, out of our 2 point range and straight into Steve's...

Now down 3-1 we needed a miracle to come back and it was looking okay half way through games four and five but Collingwood went on a last quarter tear to move the game back to Steve's margin and give them and unassailable 4-1 lead with only one to play. We got the last point to trim the margin and lose the match 4-2.

This moves us off top spot in Division 7 down to 4th with a 4-2-2 record. We play 8th placed Dredge_Dragline in round nine hoping to return to the winner's circle.

Bets

Betting wise we profited a modest 0.54 units. It could have been more had Essendon held their 20+ point lead to give us a perfect 3 for 3 but we had to settle for two and one this round.

On the year we move to -1.48 units good for a -6.6% ROI.

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