Can't Stop, Won't Stop - Round 18 Model Update

Can't Stop, Won't Stop

It's been a while since our last update of the PPP model so it is time to see where we stand with a quarter of the season remaining.

We've had a few upsets lately but mainly games that have been close enough to 50/50 to call them a coinflip. Unfortunately for us, it feels like we've called every flip wrong, nearly for the entire season.

Most recently the model was extremely bullish on Port Adelaide to beat Carlton at Marvel stadium but the 'Baggers come out swinging after McKay was subbed out and gave the Power their first loss in over 10 games.

We had the Bulldogs 53%, the Swans won. We had Brisbane 52%, Melbourne won. 

While these close games don't determine a lot of a model's success, it does feel like we have not been on the winning end of one of these all season, but I digress.

Bits

We have slowly accumulated our bits as the season progresses with 21.84 post round 18. Comparatively to Squiggle models, it is not at the pace we require and we are down in the bottom four on bits.

MAE

Our MAE has followed a similar fate to bits, with some really close picks meaning we keep it low but there are too many models above us who consistantly produce outstanding margin picks and have jumped us. We again sit bottom four on MAE although within striking distance of the few above us as this metric is rather swingy this season.

Tipping and FMIplay

We have climed to 102 tips on the year, good for 67% of games correct. However this is would currently claim the wooden spoon on Squiggle, one below the pack.

FMIplay looked to be a different story as we lead Division 7 a few weeks back, but a Carlton 2022 type decline the final weeks of the season has meant we have finished the regular season 6th place, one spot out of finals, having needed Richmond to beat West Coast by 48 or more points to jump back into the finals. 

We go again next year in FMIplay hoping to move out of Div 7 and up the tables.

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