Model Performance - Round 4

How Did the Model Perform?

It was a mixed bag, round four, and it did not treat the PPP model kindly. A mediocre 5 tips correct with some pretty big losses thrown in there means it is likely to be our worst round of the young season. 

As I wrote last week, this round meant a lot to the model thanks to some polarising predictions and we did not get the chocolates for the Easter weekend, losing all four of the "50/50" games.

Adelaide running over Fremantle meant we forewent 0.24 bits, Brisbane winning cost us 0.38 bits, Bulldogs another 0.33 and Port Adelaide a whopping 0.76. Those go the other way and we are near the top of the ratings but as luck would have it we missed the mark this week and are now chasing our tail.

For the entire round we did profit bits, up to a dead even 0.00 now after winning 0.75 bits cumulatively. Our MAE declined ever so slightly by 0.06 to 28.94 and we look to improve going into round five.

Bits

We dropped a few places on the Squiggle leaderboards, our 0.00 bits on the year good for 18th down from 8th, our worst position yet. 

Now over 2 full bits away from first place, we look to get some respect back next week and regain our spot in the top 10.

MAE

Most of the top models improved their MAE this week while we treaded water, meaning our 13th place last week has diminished down to 22nd place. This was in part due to some upsets winning but also not being as agressive as some models on the bigger wins of the weekend, Geelong's thumping of Hawthorn and Melbourne taking care of West Coast.

Making some edits to the margin predictor on the model this week, but as Matter of Stats highlighted in his tweet this week, it is hard for models to correlate margin and confidence and perform in both.

Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition

Tipping is hard. 5/9 again in round four means we improve to 19 on the year, an rather unfortunate (equal) last place on the Squiggle leaderboards. We take some solace that Matter of Stats themselves join us alongside Stattraction, two of the historically better models in the competition.

In our FMI battle against Manikato888, we fought out a tight 2-2 draw after they got the first point on Adelaide beating Freo, we earned a win plus a bonus point when Carlton took care of North Melbourne by 23 points, only to be too conservative in Melbourne's win and lose out the last point on the last game to tie it at 2.

We remain 6th, one spot out of the playoffs with a 1-2-1 record, only missing out on 5th by points differential.

Our Gather Round matchup is against THE Michael Cole, who currently sits third with a 2-1-1 record and comes in off a 5-0 thumping of DarcyNorman99 in round four.

Bets

An unfortunate betting round for us, losing our two bets on Collingwood and Fremantle, bringing our season performance back in the red, -1.8 units, good for -21.2% ROI.

Wrap Up

A tough week for the model. We went into this week hoping for a couple favourites to win and a couple upsets to come off and we really got none of what we needed outside of St Kilda and Essendon taking care of business.

We go again for Gather Round in round five, with the model attempting to get in the Adelaide mindset and see if we can nail the conditions on some unusual football grounds.

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