Round 4 Tips and Head to Head Bets

Round 4 Tips

Brisbane v Collingwood (62%, 12pts)

North Melbourne v Carlton (74%, 26pts)

Adelaide v Fremantle (58%, 8pts)

Richmond (60%, 10pts) v Western Bulldogs

St Kilda (66%, 17ts) v Gold Coast

Sydney (70%, 22pts) v Port Adelaide

Essendon (65%, 15pts) v GWS

West Coast v Melbourne (78%, 31pts)

Geelong (70%, 21pts) v Hawthorn

The only game here I was surprised to see is Richmond favourites over Western Bulldogs, I would have thought the Doggies' win on Thursday night would have been enough to give them the edge here but Luke Beveridge's men start with a 58.9 elo point deficit and then after HFA is added the Tigers come out ahead.

This round is the largest average of confidence with only one game in the 50-60% range and four above 70%. This means it is a massive round for bits to be won or lost so expect lots of movement on the bits leaderboard.

Suggested Bets for Round 4

Season performance so far: -0.75 bits, 28.78 MAE, 14/27 tips (52%), +0.2 units, 3.1% ROI

Only the two bets for this week after last week's 2/3 +2.35 unit success.

Collingwood at $1.84 v Brisbane - 1 unit.

These odds look far too big, $1.84 is 54% chance and I would imagine by game time this comes down to the $1.70 mark. Of course Collingwood are without a recognised ruckman so expect McInerney to come out on top but there seems to be no stopping Collingwood's midfield putting up ridiculous clearance and contested possession numbers week after week.

Fremantle at $2.05 v Adelaide - 1 unit.

Fremantle did not look all that good against a depleted West Coast team and Adelaide knocked off Port Adelaide in a thrilling Showdown, but the model didn't like Port Adelaide before that and like them even less now. Perhaps the Showdown result says more about Port's level than Adelaide's.

Can Fremantle score away from home and can Adelaide back up their efforts? This match will tell us a lot about those these sides but I think the above $2.00 on offer here is enough for a small play.

Futures plays were posted here earlier, quite a slow week all round but still money on offer. Good luck going into the Easter weekend and let's hope for some results!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Model Performance - Round 3

How Did the Model Perform? Round three threw up quite a few unexpected results, with somewhere between 4 and 5 underdogs getting the victory, depending on which source you use. For the PPP model  it was the best round so far to date in terms of tips and MAE with a -0.11 bit round being second only to round 1's -0.07 bits.  It is too easy to say this year has been unpredictable and not easy to model, the evidence for this however is in the Squiggle  model competition, with only four models in the net positive on bits. Having three straight rounds of negative bits does notr bode well for your model but so far in 2023 we can all be given a pass while the ratings and teams find their running order and settle down going into the first turn and back straight. If the betting markets are your preferred yardstick then we can safely say we have the bookies covered on MAE and bits, only being one behind on tips. For round three alone, the model tipped 5/9, lost 0.11 bits and had a M...
Read more

Model Performance - Round 1

How Did the Model Perform? Throughout 2023 I will be comparing my model to those in the Squiggle model competition with hopes of competing in it next year.  The Squiggle competition is a very well respected group of modellers who all predict the outcome of every match in the AFL season and then analyse their performance using various methods. In this post  I explained how these were but for those in need of a refresher we have bits (confidence based picks), MAE (the average of how many points you were wrong by) and just general tips (how many games did you pick the winner). On Squiggle the top models by bits are The Footycast  who leads the way with 0.79, Elo Predicts  who is second on 0.59 and AFLalytics  a close third on 0.58. My model finished round one in a would be 17th place with -0.07 bits. Not to worry, 23 rounds of AFL football to go. Looking at MAE now and we have  The Footycast   again in first with 27.13, The Cruncher in second with ...
Read more

AFL 2023 Season Preview

Image
2023 Initial Ratings and Model Explaination The 2023 footy season is upon us and it's time for wannabe modellers to break out their coding skills and put their brain and football knowledge to the test. I have refined and improved my previous models for sports like rugby, baseball and tennis to come up with what I believe to be an accurate and realistic model for the AFL season. My model works mainly from elo as its base rating system but includes variables like a fluid home ground advantage multiplier, expected score (or xScore) and previous head to head results to skew the probabilities one way or the other. The Elo Rating System Elo works on a couple main principles. Firstly is that it is a zero sum rating system, which means whatever points you add to one team you must take the same number of points away from the other team.  Secondly there is no "perfect" rating for each team as it is fluid and changes after every game.  For this reason two teams may play 10 matches a...
Read more