Round 3 Tips and Head to Head Bets

Round 3 Tips

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane (57%, 9pts)

Collingwood (59%, 12pts) v Richmond

Hawthorn (58%, 11pts) v North Melbourne

GWS v Carlton (58% 11pts)

St Kilda (58% 12pts) v Essendon

Port Adelaide (68%, 26pts) v Adelaide

Gold Coast v Geelong (65%, 22pts)

Melbourne v Sydney (55%, 7pts)

Fremantle (73%, 35pts) v West Coast

Hawthorn being favourites over North Melbourne is a big surprise based on what we have seen in the early rounds of 2023. However there was quite a big elo gap between the two at the end of 2022 that this outcome isn't too shocking compared to if they should play later on in the year where more data would be available.

A slight surprise for me is St Kilda to be two goal favourites against a seemingly in form Essendon. I would say this game has to be match of the round, with two teams both 2-0 and both looking to firm up their finals chances.

I would also think Geelong should win by more than 22 points against a somewhat disappointing Gold Coast but in saying that, the Cats themselves don't look that impressive early on.

Suggested Bets for Round 3

Season performance so far: -0.64 bits, 32.92 MAE, 9/18 tips (50%), -2.15 units, -61% ROI

I have already covered our futures bets for the rounds ahead and hopefully these head to head bets will cover some of the gaps left for the futures selections due to teams playing each other and for those looking for some short term success.

The first choice comes in the first game of the round where the Bulldogs come up against Brisbane.

Western Bulldogs at $2.80 v Brisbane - 1 unit.

We have not seen the true Western Bulldogs yet (hopefully) and their skill on paper is obviously better than the two efforts they've turned in thus far. On the flip side Brisbane were very good last week but abhorred round one in a dismal loss to Port Adelaide. They may be a streaky side as seen last year so this could be a game they underestimate the underperforming Doggies. 

The Bulldogs need to come out and show the league what they have as coming back from the 0-3 start will be nearly impossible to overcome so expect them to remedy the 0.1 first quarter last week and show a bit of ticker on prime time footy.

Hawthorn at $2.55 v North Melbourne - 1 unit.

Hawthorn in Tassie, it's a good formula historically but this Hawthorn team is historically... bad. I can see how they are underdogs here (as well as North Melbourne being extraordinary so far) but the $2.55 seems to be a bit large. Fair is probably not the $1.73 as my model suggests but more around the $2.20 to $2.30 mark, which is why I have staked down from 2 units to 1.

Sydney at $2.18 v Melbourne - 1 unit.

This bet plays in with the suggested 1 unit bet on Sydney to make the top four come the end of the season. This is a bit of a double dip on Sydney here but the odds just seem wrong. Sydney have done everything right so far and they've definitely done enough to suggest they can be favourites at the MCG this week. If anything I would think they should be $2.10 at the worst so nearly $2.20 is more than enough for a play.

A possible play here could be a 1 unit bet on Sydney mixed with a 1 unit bet on Melbourne to make the top four as a little bit of insurance if this doesn't come off.

3 units. All underdogs, let's have a good week!

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