Futures Look Ahead - After Round 2

Where is the Model Looking?

After back to back underdog victories under the lid of Marvel Stadium, it is safe to say the model now LOVES St Kilda. Jack Steele being added to their long list of injuries does not help them in real life but the model looks past that and has them with a massive 67% chance of making the finals. This week's game against Essendon (another club the model rates with a 57% finals chance) on Saturday night, looks to be a huge one for both clubs and one which can make a big difference to the finals outlooks of both sides.

The model looks to be incredibly bearish on Melbourne and Geelong in particular, rating their finals chances at 59% and 53% respectively.

Melbourne's low rating can be attributed partly to a bad loss in Brisbane and also to a win against Western Bulldogs which now does not look that impressive after their loss to the hands of St Kilda.

Geelong are 0-2 starting both matches as favourites which does not bode well for them. They'll look to recover some rating this week away to Gold Coast. If they lose this one however and they will find themselves underdogs for a finals place.

Hawthorn have now moved into last place in the model ratings, a 18% chance for 18th place. North Melbourne fresh off their 2-0 start have moved up to 14th in ratings! Their highest position for around three years.

Futures Look Ahead

So where are we looking to place our wagers this week? 

After the 17 units being outlayed over the last two weeks, this week seems to be a notch less exciting with only a select few picks finding the light of day. This is due to a mixture of not wanting to keep going after the same teams we have bet on previously and also to balance out bets where two teams play each other for some bankroll control. (Fair price in brackets).
  • Sydney Top 4 - $2.20 ($1.76) 1 unit (could play the $7.5 for Sydney minor premiers too if you wanted to split your bet 75/25 here but I will not be taking this as of yet)
  • St Kilda Finals - $2.35 ($1.49) 0.5 units
  • Essendon Finals - $3.40 ($1.75) 0.5 units
  • Port Adelaide Miss Finals - $2.50 ($1.95) 0.5 units
  • Richmond Miss Finals - $3.40 ($2.75) 0.25 units
Just the 2.75 units on the markets this week, adding to our 17 total units previously.

There were plenty of suggested bets on teams we had been hammering in the weeks previous but this is the best balance of wagers in my opinion.

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