Model Performance - Round 7

How Did the Model Perform?

Nearly every model was in consensus on every game but the footy gods spoke and we got a few upsets in round 7. The PPP model went with the crowd on all the matches and tipped every favourite, resulting in 6/9 tips thanks to Port Adelaide, GWS and Gold Coast all upsetting their more fancied rivals.

Bits

We gained some more bits with some confident projections coming true, up to a new season high of 4.35, 0.85 gained this round alone. 

We have moved up a spot on the Squiggle standings to 22nd place, looking to continue the upward trajectory moving forward.

MAE

We lost ground on MAE with some big thrashings of teams being a little outside the predicted margins. We move to 27.69 on the year with the round average of 30.91. 

We move to 23rd on Squiggle for MAE with most of the models now becoming more correlated with MAE to bits as we move into the season.

I have made some edits to the margin prediciting of my model which has been backtested to be about 0.3 MAE more accurate each year.

Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition

As mentioned most models got the standard 6 tips right this week with the PPP being no exception. We move to 39 correct on the year, still in the cellar of the Squiggle models.

FMIplay was a free win for the model with our opponent not entering their tips in time to be counted. The two sweetest words in the English language - de and fault. 

The free win however means we move into first place of division 7 with a 4-2-1 record. We play vote1steve in round 8, looking to keep our spot and extend the lead on top of the ladder.

Bets

One bet was sent out and one bet was cashed. Gold Coast knocked off a disappointing Richmond and we got $3 odds earlier in the week for a good 2 unit return for round 7.

We are now -2.02 units on the year, a -10.4% ROI.

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