Model Performance - Round 5

How Did the Model Perform?

A relatively straight forward round 5 allowed the model to make up some much needed bits and saw the MAE reduce down to a season low. The MAE for this round was a lovely 23.6 and we gained 1.01 bits over the 9 games.

However as this was the case for most models, it meant we did in fact lose ground compared to some of the Squiggle models who had more confident picks for the winning games.

A good result for the model on futures betting markets but a bad result for season performance ratings, a very mixed bag.

Bits

As mentioned, we improved to a season high 1.01 bits, thanks to a 1.01 bit weekend. Geelong gave us the biggest improvement of 0.67 bits and Brisbane winning was earned us a 0.66 return but we instantly gave back 0.54 bits when Melbourne went down to Essendon.

Interestingly we would have profited or lost 0 bits no matter who won the GWS v Hawthorn game, our MAE of 2.01 was extremely good but it ended up being a net negative for the model compared to others who had GWS more confident than a 50/50 split. The aggregate on Squiggle was around 60% in favour of the victors. 

Looking to the Squiggle leaderboard now and we have dropped to 22nd place on bits as most models made some considerable leaps this round. 7/9 tips this week only good for a 4 place drop on the leaderboards.

MAE

The best round of the year so far for MAE with a 23.6 average result. Highlights came from the Richmond v Sydney game, a MAE of 4.47, GWS v Hawthorn was 2.01 and Collingwood v St Kilda was 4.68.

We have improved to a season low MAE of 27.85, good for 22nd place also on the Squiggle leaderboards. 

Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition

The trend continued in the tipping sphere where the model had a season best 7 out of 9 tips but lost ground on every metric where most models got the 8 out of 9. This shows how swingy the predicting game is, if Hawthorn's last ditch effort for goal had have gone through we would have been a full two tips better off compared to those other predictions.

This leaves us wtih 25 tips for the season at a 56% rate, good for dead last on the Squiggle leaderboard.

However good news in the FMI competition with a last ditch effort 3-2 win over TheMikeyCole thanks to St Kilda's two quick goals in the last three minutes of their match bringing the margin into my winning zone and securing the victory.

This moves us into another season high of 4th in Division 7 with a 2-2-1 record and improves our unbeaten streak to four matches. We play DarcyNorman99 this week, who sits in 8th with a 1-2-2 record.

Bets

We got off to a red hot start with Essendon toppling Melbourne, good for a 2.5 unit profit but then lost the next three on the trot to end the round -0.5 units.

On the year we are now -2.3 units with a -18.4% ROI.

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