Futures Look Ahead - After Round 4

Where is the Model Looking?

Round four has thrown up some results that have meant our ratings on certain teams and the bookmakers' are once again quite different.

The teams that are loved by the model seem to be St Kilda, the model has them favourites for the minor premiership at 22% and it also likes Essendon, PPP has them with a 56% finals chance compared to the bookies' 28%.

Compare this to the other end and the market as a whole isn't quite sure on Adelaide, some models have them 10% for finals, some as high as 45%, ours is slightly bullish on 35%. Geelong also are rather confusing with some models very confident and some thinking 6th or 7th is their position.

Futures Look Ahead

So where should we be betting for the final ladder positions? Six bets in total however one of them is a whopping 3 unit bet with the bookmakers throwing up a wrong price. 

A few of these bets counteract some earlier season bets, however as our ratings fluctuate a little more than the bookies' it is important to stay ahead when there is value and take the contradicting prices if it is good for us long term. (Fair price is in brackets)
  • Collingwood miss 4 - $2.25 ($1.97) 0.5 units
  • St Kilda finals - $1.50 ($1.16) 0.5 units
  • Western Bulldogs finals - $2.30 ($2.14) 0.5 units
  • Adelaide finals - $3.50 ($2.88) 0.5 units
  • Port Adelaide miss finals - $2.00 ($1.72) 0.5 units
  • Richmond miss finals - $2.00 ($1.78) 3 units
5.5 units outlayed this week to add to the 23.25 units previously outlayed.


The total outlay and distribution should now look like this after all the bets have been placed, assuming $100 units.

Good luck is playing this week and for the futures!


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