Round 2 Head to Head Tips and Bets

Round 2 Tips

Carlton v Geelong (62%, 17pts)

Brisbane v Melbourne (54%, 5pts)

Collingwood (62%, 16pts) v Port Adelaide

Adelaide v Richmond (62%, 18pts)

Western Bulldogs (50%, 0pts) v St Kilda

Fremantle (77%, 43pts) v North Melbourne

Sydney (80%, 48pts) v Hawthorn

Essendon (57%, 10pts) v Gold Coast

West Coast v GWS (62%, 17pts)

The only real surprises here for me is the Bulldogs Saints game with the model predicting a 0.05 difference in score, slightly in favour of the Bulldogs. The model does not take into account any player injuries which can explain a little bit of the margin. 

St Kilda are also helped by their win at Marvel Stadium against Fremantle, a boost to their rating by beating a more favoured opponent and for winning at the ground they will play at this week.

Suggested Bets for Round 2

Season performance so far: -0.07 bits, 29.61 MAE, 4.5/9 tips (50%), -2.00 units, -100% ROI

Yesterday I wrote about the futures bets to take before round two, with a massive 10.5 units being outlayed, today will be about the head to head bets for this round.

Another slow week for head to head bets however with only the one bet suggested. 

GWS at $1.80 against West Coast - 1 unit.

The model says fair price is $1.61 so this is only a one unit selection.

For the sake of not taking into account injuries and expected ins and outs for the Western Bulldogs v St Kilda game, I will also not be taking the $2.70 about St Kilda for the full three units as the model suggests. I will stake this down to a 0.5 unit bet to remove some risk that our model is not perfect.

St Kilda at $2.70 against Western Bulldogs - 0.5 units.

Melbourne did go up closer to $2.00 against Brisbane which would be a one unit bet but now they are more around the $1.80 mark which is right on fair. No bet here unless you can get $1.90 or above, I will not be playing this market. There is also ever so slight value on the $6.50 about Hawthorn, however again not enough for a selection. Should this get to $8 or above we can play it.

Follow me on Twitter at @zoonmattau for more information and updates!

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