Round 1 Washup and Futures Look Ahead

Round 1 Review

Round 1 is run and done with a few suprises and some potential upsets that we did not expect. Thursday couldn't have been a worse opening game right until the final siren with a draw to pre season finals favourites Richmond and Carlton. Friday produced an absolute cracker with two top four stalwarts Collingwood and Geelong and from there the season proper was underway.

For the most part Round 1 provided us with what we expected we would get, a few upsets and a couple teams significantly improved with a couple falling behind.

The most impressive teams, above our preseason expectations, were Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda and Essendon. The most unimpressive were both Richmond and Carlton, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle. Hawthorn have their own special spot on a special list of the teams that were just impossibly bad.

Futures Look Ahead

Monday morning always throws up some unexpected odds on the futures market and after running our sims for round two and beyond there is lots of value to be found this week. Bare with me on this as we have 18(!) bets to place before round three.

We've already placed 7.5 units before round one so lets add to that now. Again the fair price of the model is in the brackets with the real price on either TopSport or Unibet before it (not Bluebet as I have been banned after taking advantage of their markets).
  • Collingwood Top 4 - $2.45 ($2.31) 0.5 units
  • Sydney Top 4 - $2.70 ($2.02) 0.5 units
  • Port Adelaide Top 4 - $3.75 ($2.95) 0.5 units
  • Melbourne Miss Top 4 - $1.98 ($1.77) 0.5 units
  • Geelong Miss Top 4 - $2.10 ($1.59) 0.5 units
  • Richmond Miss Top 4 - $1.59 ($1.34) 1 unit
  • Carlton Miss Top 4 - $1.45 ($1.26) 1 unit
  • Brisbane Miss Top 4 - $1.57 ($1.22) 1 unit
  • St Kilda Finals - $3.50 ($1.89) 0.25 units
  • Essendon Finals - $3.80 ($2.23) 0.25 units
  • GWS Finals - $5.00 ($2.71) 0.25 units
  • Gold Coast Finals - $5.50 ($3.75) 0.25 units
  • Richmond Miss Finals - $4.00 ($2.11) 0.5 units
  • Carlton Miss Finals - $2.80 ($1.95) 0.5 units
  • Fremantle Miss Finals - $1.92 ($1.77) 0.5 units
  • Brisbane Miss Finals - $4.5 ($1.77) 1 unit
  • Western Bulldogs Miss Finals - $1.92 ($1.57) 0.5 units
  • West Coast Wooden Spoon - $6.00 ($4.41) 0.5 units
A whopping 9.5 units have now been added to our previous 7.5.

Following the trend from last week, Richmond and Carlton failing helps us out immensly with Brisbane a new contender as one we want to see drop off. Ideally one of St Kilda, Essendon, GWS or Gold Coast make the finals to help us recoop some easy costs and we hope Sydney keep winning with their realtively easy first few weeks.

I'll be keeping my eye on the odds through the week and posting round two tips plus any more futures plays at a later date.

Follow me on Twitter at @zoonmattau for more information and updates!

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