A Betting Look at the 2023 AFL Season & Round 1

Where is the Value?

On my previous post about the 2023 AFL season, I outlined some probabilites of what I expect could happen this season. In this post we will explore where the value lies in some futures markets as well as my tips for the round 1 head to head matches and the value in those games.

Odds are being taken from a mixture of BlueBet, Unibet and Topsport to attempt to find the greatest value across the three sights. I cannot use Sportsbet, Bet365, Neds, Ladbrokes or any other as I have been banned from most if not all of them.

My method for the season is to place wagers every week where there is value on futures and have them all add up towards the end of the season where we hopefully land a big pay out all at once. This does mean you are without the cash for up to 6 months but we hope the value is enough to keep us going.

Usually I will not take any odds below $1.30 or above $30 to take some of the extremes out of it as my model isn't as up to date as these betting sites so I don't want to take something that is obviously priced wrong from my model.

What you'll find when looking at these markets is one betting model will not like a team or like a team and it will be represented across the minor premiership, make top four and make finals markets and it is up to the shrewd punter to decide how much risk they want to take. Essentially all these bets are the same, you are betting that team will be bettter than the bookie thinks they will be so betting across all three of the markets in most cases doesn't make financial sense.

The first of these I notice is Topsport on Fremantle where they seem be laying them at a high price across all the aforementioned markets. For this reason there seems to be value in all of them but I will only be taking one that I like the best.

After looking at all the markets here are the bets I like with the expected fair price in brackets:

  • Sydney Top 4 -  $2.65 ($2.42) 0.5 units
  • Fremantle Top 4 - $4.40 ($3.53) 0.5 units
  • Geelong Miss 4 - $2.50 ($2.35) 0.5 units
  • Brisbane Miss 4 - $1.80 ($1.52) 1 unit
  • Melbourne Miss 4 - $1.74 ($1.50) 1 unit
  • Richmond Miss 4 - $1.65 ($1.44) 1 unit
  • Gold Coast Finals - $4.25 ($2.67) 1 unit
  • Western Bulldogs Miss Finals - $2.10 ($1.98) 0.5 units
  • Port Adelaide Miss Finals - $2.25 ($1.92) 0.5 units
  • Carlton Miss Finals - $2.70 ($1.77) 1 unit
Total outlay - 7.5 units

You'll notice for some games I need both teams to lose (Richmond v Carlton I have Richmond to miss the 4 and Carlton to miss the 8) but this is something the model relies on and in doing so we understand it isn't about this one week but all 23 24 rounds of the season.

Also notice I have bet on four teams to miss the top 4 which almost certainly will not happen. This is again expected and understanable as we are taking edges and if the model performs accurately, the bets will all be "good". This is a weird concept but there is fact that a losing bet can still be a good bet and similarly a winning bet can be a bad bet.

The model does this because, depending on the result, it makes it more or less likely for the predicted events to happen down the road and it provides more opportunity for value as we move through the season.

Round 1 Tips and Bets

Season performance so far: 0.00 bits, 0.00 MAE, 0/0 tips (0%), +0.00 units, 0% ROI

Richmond (60%, 14pts) v Carlton - $1.70 v $2.15 - no bet

Geelong (63%, 19pts) v Collingwood - $1.47 v $2.70 - no bet

North Melbourne (54%, 6pts) v West Coast - $1.80 v $2.00 - no bet

Port Adelaide v Brisbane (52%, 3pts) - $2.00 v $1.80 - no bet

Melbourne (57%, 9pts) v Western Bulldogs - $1.48 v $2.65 - 1 unit on Western Bulldogs

Gold Coast v Sydney (61%, 15pts) - $2.35 v $1.60 - no bet

GWS (54%, 5pts) v Adelaide - $1.65 v $2.25 - no bet

Hawthorn (53%, 4pts) v Essendon - $2.40 v $1.57 - 1 unit on Hawthorn

St Kilda v Fremantle (54%, 6pts) - $2.55 v $1.52 - no bet

Just the two units outlayed in week one, both on underdogs. The model will get more aggressive as the season unfolds but with low confidence the stakes need to stay small for the time being.

Follow along here or on my twitter @zoonmattau where I will be tweeting footy nonsense all season long. Good luck if you are a fellow modeller or tipster!

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