Round 8 Tips and Head to Head Bets

Round 8 Tips

Carlton v Brisbane (43%, 13pts)

Richmond (78%, 24pts) v West Coast

Geelong (75%, 16pts) v Adelaide

Gold Coast v Melbourne (66%, 16pts)

GWS v Western Bulldogs (68%, 20pts)

Fremantle (69%, 13pts) v Hawthorn

Port Adelaide (58%, 7pts) v Essendon

Collingwood (68%, 10pts) v Sydney

North Melbourne v St Kilda (84%, 40pts)

Not really many surprises with the favourites but I have tweaked the margin predicting on the model to provide more realistic results based on how the ground impacts scoring and the rest teams have had coming into the game.

Head to Head Bets

Season performance so far: 4.35 bits, 27.69 MAE, 39 tips (62%), -2.02 units, -10.4% ROI

Three bets this week, one favourite, one underdog and a coin flip.

Brisbane at $1.95 against Carlton - 1 unit.

This is a really surprising market considering Carlton have been ordinary so far and Brisbane have showed they can turn it on when they want to. Fair odds for Brisbane is $1.68 so interested to see how this plays out.

Western Bulldogs at $1.59 against GWS - 1 unit.

Very surprised to see this game only projected to be a 63% favourite. GWS beat Sydney last week by one point but overshot their xScore by nearly 30 points and with Sydney's injury list, that win perhaps isn't as impressive as once thought.

Essendon at $2.75 to beat Port Adelaide - 1 unit.

I have Essendon to be $2.40, so this isn't too outrageous of pricing, and Port Adelaide should be good enough to beat this Essendon team but both these sides are a bit of an unknown still and this game should be a good barometer to see where they are at.

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