Model Performance - Round 6

How Did the Model Perform?

The easiest round to tip on the year to date, round 6 saw us grab 8 of the 9 available matches correctly, the only blemish coming on Friday night's game where the Doggies got the better of the favoured Dockers.

Bits

Coming into this round we had a total of 1.01 bits from the first 5 rounds combined. After the latest slate of matches we are now up to 3.50 bits, up 2.49 in round 6 alone!

Our tips however were a bit less confident than some other models and we now trail first place AFLalytics by nearly 5 full bits. We sit 23rd on the Squiggle leaderboard, down one place from last week.

MAE

Another fantastic result for MAE this round with 23.65 average, just slightly worse than the 23.60 from round 5. On the season we improve to 27.15, thanks to an exact 13 point margin on the ANZAC Day match, saluting after the siren.

On Squiggle we sit in 25th for MAE, down three spots from last week. However we are only 1 MAE off a top 10 spot, plenty of work still to be done.

Tips and FMIplay Tipping Competition

Most models recieved 8 or 9 tips with us being on the lower end of the spectrum. The odd 7 was sprinkled in but 8 was definitely the mean average.

We still remain last on Squiggle for tips alone with 33 total.

FMIplay saw us get a very easy win over DarcyNorman99, a 4-1 victory that was over after three matches thanks to a bonus point and two other singulars.

This result moves us into the Division 7 finals placings, third on the ladder with a 3-2-1 record good for 16 points, 2 points (and score differential) away from first place.

Bets

Just the one bet saluting this week thanks to most favourites getting up. The win came on a $2.14 bet on St Kilda who ended up jumping below $1.80, for a two unit winner. Hawthorn teased us again with a three point loss for the second consecutive week, costing us another 3 or 4 units.

On the year we are now -4.02 units good for a -21.7% ROI.

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