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Showing posts from July, 2023

Can't Stop, Won't Stop - Round 18 Model Update

Can't Stop, Won't Stop It's been a while since our last update of the PPP model so it is time to see where we stand with a quarter of the season remaining. We've had a few upsets lately but mainly games that have been close enough to 50/50 to call them a coinflip. Unfortunately for us, it feels like we've called every flip wrong, nearly for the entire season. Most recently the model was extremely bullish on Port Adelaide to beat Carlton at Marvel stadium but the 'Baggers come out swinging after McKay was subbed out and gave the Power their first loss in over 10 games. We had the Bulldogs 53%, the Swans won. We had Brisbane 52%, Melbourne won.  While these close games don't determine a lot of a model's success, it does feel like we have not been on the winning end of one of these all season, but I digress. Bits We have slowly accumulated our bits as the season progresses with 21.84 post round 18. Comparatively to Squiggle models, it is not at the pace we ...