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Showing posts from June, 2023

A Little Setback - Round 12 Model Analysis

Back to Reality The one game which set most models apart from each other was the Saturday night clash between the Bulldogs and Cats. Unfortunately for us we had the Doggies as 58% favourites, meaning we finished one below most on tips and cost us a few bits to go along with it. We can handle this after the last two weeks of sucessful tipping and bit hoarding as we look to consolidate our place on the Squiggle leaderboard. Bits We gained another 2.61 bits across the seven round 11 matches with handy win from Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Melbourne helping boost that tally. Most if not all models and people would have picked that result with a lot of confidence so this doesn't do much for our ranking. We move up to 13.19 bits on the year, our highest mark yet as we cross the half way point of the H&A season. On Squiggle this puts us 16th, still just below midfield after a little slide this week. A couple close matchups in round 13 could be a big make or break week for the models...

Round 12 Tips & Bets

Round 12 Tips Melbourne (71%, 21pts) v Carlton Port Adelaide (81%, 30pts) v Hawthorn West Coast v Collingwood (92%, 65pts) Western Bulldogs (58%, 6pts) v Geelong Gold Coast v Adelaide (54%, 6pts) GWS v Richmond (60%, 13pts) Essendon (78%, 33pts) v North Melbourne Head to Head Bets Season performance so far: 10.58 bits, 26.82 MAE, 64 tips (65%), -1.93 units, -6.8% ROI Only Richmond to beat GWS this week at $1.95 for 1 unit. GWS have little to no home field advantage and besides beating an undermanned Geelong last week have done very little to prove being a favourite v Richmond, who admittedly have also done nothing this season (other than also beating Geelong).