Futures Look Ahead - After Round 3

Where is the Model Looking?


For most teams, the PPP model and the bookmaker's markets are converging to one standard opinion. This bodes well for us as we know sometimes models can be far outside the range of "reality".

No one really knows what the future holds but the bookies are historically somewhat accurate so we trust them as a reliable source for future telling. Our model could be spot on and the bookies way off, although this is rather unlikely.

There are however a few teams defying the group think and forging their own path in the PPP futures markets. 

Coming off three impressive wins, St Kilda are the model darling, some 25 or more percent chance better to make the finals than the markets suggest. This is helped out by beating some what strong teams and doing so while being underdogs every time.

Essendon for similar reasons are also loved by the model. Note their loss to St Kilda does not impact them as much as it probably should because we think St Kilda is also a very good team.

Geelong's loss to Gold Coast on their previous two however hurt them for exactly the same reason. We think Geelong are pretty good and Gold Coast pretty bad so losing by a substantial margin compared to the pre match predicted one (nearly 50 points different) puts a big dent into their hopes. 

Brisbane are also struggling in the model after their loss to the struggling Bulldogs, the model rates their chance at top four glory only 17%.

The top four is moving around slightly with Collingwood favourites for the minor premiership with 28%, Melbourne in second (14%), and Sydney (11%) dropping down from first to fourth with St Kilda sliding up into third (13%). Carlton is next best with around 9% and then a big gap to the rest of the competition with 5% the next best chance.

The bottom of the table is settling down too with West Coast being put back to 18th, North Melbourne 17th and Hawthorn 16th.

Futures Look Ahead

A relatively calm week this time around compared to the previous three with only the 3.5 units placed, all in 0.5 unit increments. 

I have chosen to overlook some suggested bets as I feel we have already put enough down on those markets previously and betting these markets would be immature bankroll management. (Fair price in brackets).
  • Geelong miss 4 - $1.42 ($1.16) 0.5 units
  • Brisbane miss 4 - $1.51 ($1.21) 0.5 units
  • Fremantle finals - $2.75 ($2.38) 0.5 units
  • Essendon finals - $4.00 ($1.99) 0.5 units
  • St Kilda finals - $1.87 ($1.28) 0.5 units
  • Port Adelaide miss finals - $1.87 ($1.50) 0.5 units
  • Richmond miss finals - $2.70 ($2.28) 0.5 units
A few games this week pit two teams we want to either both win or lose which will be interesting but can also provide more opportunity next week. 

To help us out in the long run we are looking for a win for Collingwood, North Melbourne, Adelaide*, Western Bulldogs*, St Kilda*, Sydney, Essendon, West Coast* and Hawthorn.

* means we don't really mind but this result would be the better of the two.

Good luck if playing!

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